Certain gases, which seem to have been emitted by human activities since the industrial revolution appear to be causal factors in climate change that Earth is currently experiencing, termed Global Warming. The projected effects of this change on the State of California by the year 2099 include property loss along the coast, disruption of water supply, more severe and hot weather, loss of species, disrupted agricultural production, emergence of tropical diseases not previously experienced in California (e.g. malaria), etc. Gases currently associated with Global Warming are termed Green House Gases (GHG), and include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons.

AB 32, The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, was signed into legislation, with the purpose of bringing about a reduction in GHG emissions in the State of California to 1990 levels by the year 2020. This is a stiff target, entailing almost a 30% reduction from the projected emissions, if no change is made. Further stiffer reduction goals are expected to be set once this initial milestone is met. In addition, since Global Warming is a global issue, it is expected that this trend will expand to other states and nations throughout the globe.

The California Air Resources Board (ARB) is central to the implementation of AB32, as ARB is to issue the target reduction goals and compliance dates, which industrial corporations will be expected to meet. In order to meet the requirements of AB 32, industrial corporations will be required to inventory their GHG emissions in 1990 and 2008, develop and implement plans to reduce their emissions to meet the ARB target. Since AB32 is to be handled in a “cap and trade” fashion, it also opens a market opportunity, in which corporations may sell or buy offsets (corporations exceeding their target may sell the difference between their reduction and their goal to corporations who did not do so for monetary exchange).

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2.Introduction

AB 32, The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, was signed into legislation by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The bill requires the State of California to reduce its Green House Gas (GHG) emissions back to 1990 levels by the year 2020. In 1990, California emitted approximately 427 Million Metric Tons (MMT) of CO2 equivalents per year. In 2004, that number increased to 480 MMT/year. The projected 2020 emissions, if un-curbed, are 600 MMT/year. That entails a reduction of approximately 173 MMT/year, which is almost 30%. There is a plan to further reduce emissions by the year 2050 to less than 100 MMT/year, which entails an additional 80% reduction beyond the 1990 milestone. (California ARB Scoping Plan Kick-Off Workshop of November 30, 2007)

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3.Background

The intent of AB 32 is to set in motion a plan to reduce California’s contribution to global warming. What is global warming? In brief, solar radiation passes through the atmosphere, and warms the Earth. Earth radiates back infrared radiation. The majority of that radiation passes through the atmosphere, allowing for some cooling. However, some of that infrared radiation is absorbed by GHGs, and re-emitted in a scattered direction, and so some of it goes back towards Earth’s surface, causing additional heating. In essence, GHGs act as a blanket. This mechanism is called Global Warming because it causes the Earth to get warmer.

Slide from California ARB Scoping Plan Kick-Off Workshop of November 30, 2007.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Nitrous Oxide (N2O, or laughing gas), Methane (CH4), and Chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFCs, molecules that contain carbon, chlorine and possibly also fluorine atoms) are all considered GHGs. Actually, water is also a GHG, but it is naturally present in significant concentrations in the atmosphere. In 1990, CO2 comprised 89% of GHGs emitted in California.

These gases are emitted by all sectors of the economy and life, including transportation (e.g. from the tailpipe of every automobile, truck, ship and many trains), agriculture (e.g. trucks, manure, etc.), energy production (e.g. coal burning for electricity generation), and regular household product use (e.g. hairspray).

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3.1The Science of Global Warming

Infrared Radiation (the sensation of heat that you feel on your skin when you stand near hot cement on a cool summer night) is a form of radiation, meaning that just like light or sound, it is transmitted in waves with specific wavelengths and frequencies. Infrared radiation has a wavelength that ranges between 0.7 to about 20 µm (about the size of a pinhead).

Atoms and molecules often characteristically react with certain wavelengths. This is the same science that gives us instruments like X-Ray Fluorescence Detectors, Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy, Atomic Emission Spectroscopy and Infrared Spectroscopy. For example, in X-Ray Fluorescence Detectors, the presence of lead is detected because lead emits radiation with a wavelength of 0.1175 nm when orbital electrons fall back to their ground (non-excited) state after excitation with X-rays. Alternately, using Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy, lead is detected because it absorbs light at 217 and 283.3nm.

The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form of radiation. Most of the energy is in visible wavelengths and in infrared wavelengths that are near the visible range (often called "near infrared"). The Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming solar radiation. The remaining 70% is absorbed, warming the land, atmosphere and oceans.

For the Earth's temperature to stay consistent so that the Earth does not rapidly heat or cool, this absorbed solar raditiation must be very closely balanced by energy radiated back to space. The visible solar radiation mostly heats the surface, not the atmosphere, whereas most of the infrared radiation escaping to space is emitted from the upper atmosphere, not the surface. The molecules and atoms that constitute the bulk of the atmosphere—oxygen (O2), nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar)—do not interact with infrared radiation significantly. But, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs and CO2 (GHGs) do absorb radiation in the infrared range. And so, in the atmosphere, they absorb some of the infrared radiation emitted by Earth towards space, and scatter some of it back towards Earth. One can think of the Earth's temperature as being determined by the infrared flux needed to balance the absorbed solar flux.

So, the more opaque the atmosphere is to infrared radiation—that is, the less it will transmit inrared radition—the warmer the surface. And so we have global warming.

At this point, one may ask “if the atmosphere becomes more opaque to infrared radiation, would it not be so for both incoming and outgoing radiation, so that there is no overall net change in infrared flux?” The answer is no, for this simple reason: there is no infrared radiation going from the Sun and space towards Earth. The only infrared radiation entering Earth’s atmosphere is radiating from Earth. Therefore, the only infrared radiation that is being absrobed by GHGs is radiation from the Earth that is bound towards space, but that is captured in Earth’s atmosphere instead, and therefore contributes to global warming.

Pattern of absorption bands generated by various greenhouse gases and their impact on both solar radiation and upgoing thermal radiation from the Earth's surface. Note that a greater quantity of upgoing radiation is absorbed, which contributes to the greenhouse effect. (Wikipedia.org)

There is various evidence to suggest that global warming is occurring:

Recorded dates of when flowers bloom or snow melts in specific areas show that on average winter ends earlier every year;
Loss of species requiring cooler habitats;
Change in species composition in a particular area, with a decrease in number of individuals from species requiring cooler weather, and an increase in number of individuals requiring warmer weather;
Shrinking polar ice caps and glaciers;
Historical temperature records;
Various physical evidence suggesting average temperature during certain geologic time periods (e.g. certain rock types only form under specific climate conditions, such as hot and wet, glaciers, etc.)
Malaria encroaching North of its typical zone.

There is no disagreement among the scientific community that the Earth is getting warmer. The current scientific models associate this increase in global temperature with the increase in GHGs resulting from industrialization. The bulk of the scientific community agrees with these models. (Weiner, et al, EHS 200B, 2005)

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3.2 Projected Effects of Global Warming in California

For a temperature increase between 3 and 5.5 °F, California is expected to lose 30-60% of its snow pack, experience a sea level rise of 6-14 inches, and approximately twice as many heat wave days. For a temperature increase of 5.5 to 8 °F, California is expected to lose 70-80% of its snow pack, experience 14-22 inches of sea level rise, and up to 4 times as many heat wave days. For a temperature increase of 8-10.5 °F, California is expected to experience 90% loss of its snow pack, 22-30 inches of sea level rise, and approximately 4 times as many heat wave days. (California ARB Scoping Plan Kick-Off Workshop of November 30, 2007)

If there is no change in the global emission rate of GHGs, it is projected that by the year 2099, California will experience the worst-case scenario described above (California ARB Scoping Plan Kick-Off Workshop of November 30, 2007). Clearly, such results would cause significant property loss along the coast, as well as adversely impact California’ water supply.

Additional probable impacts include:

The emergence of infectious diseases currently limited to tropical zones, such as malaria;
The loss of species (e.g. trees, flowers, animals, etc.);
The timing when flowers bloom vs. when animals and insects stop hibernating may become mis-matched, which can then lead to loss of agricultural productivity;
More violent weather with dryer/hotter overall climate. (Weiner, et al, EHS 200B, 2005)

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3.3 What If You Still Don’t Buy Into the Global Warming Paradigm?

Frankly, whether you choose not to believe the Global Warming paradigm is inconsequential. The facts are these:

AB 32 has been signed into law in the State of California, and requires a reduction in GHG emissions. So whether one believes the paradigm or not, they will still be required to reduce their emissions if they operate in California.

Enough persons in the population have bought into the paradigm. A company that reduces its GHG emissions and takes other steps to be “green” will obtain the good will of the public. Therefore, reducing GHG emissions is a good Public Relations and Marketing move. Witness BMW’s new hydrogen-fueled vehicle already advertised on television, the success of Toyota’s Prius Hybrid, BP’s Google advertisements for their carbon foot-print calculator.

The best way to reduce GHG emissions is to reduce energy consumption. With rising energy costs and with the impending exhaustion of crude petroleum, there are additional economic drives to curbing energy consumption and using cleaner, renewable energy sources.

One of the ways of obtaining LEED rating is to build energy-efficient buildings (LEED-NC V. 2.2).

There is an economic value to reduction in GHG emissions below the required limit (offsets), as these can now be traded in the “emissions trading marketplace” and can be sold for a monetary profit. Their value is expected to increase once the requirements of AB32 are enforced.

It is possible that fines will be levied on those companies failing to meet the targeted GHG emission reductions.

In summary, meeting or exceeding the requirements of AB32 is not just about doing something good, but is rather about making a sound business decision. This societal shift will occur, starting in our current decade and will continue to progress with increasing volume in the future decades. In fact, most college students today believe that Global Warming is the social issue that will define their generation.

Therefore, regardless of the personal beliefs of any of CSC’s owners or personnel, a sound strategic plan for the company includes cultivating AB32-related services as part of CSC’s repertoire. Not to cultivate these services and their associated branding in the near future will likely result in CSC potentially missing the opportunity of being one of the early-leading firms in what appears to be a long-term enormously important and prolific technical field.

In addition, although AB32 is pertinent only to the State of California, Global Warming is a global issue, not a local one. However, the State of California has a history of being the global leader in addressing environmental issues. This suggests that any technical skills that CSC can provide towards assisting clients address the AB32 requirements in California will also be transferable to other national and global locations, once other states and countries follow suit. It is also important to remember that meeting the AB32 goal of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020 is not the end-goal for curtailing Global Warming, but rather just a milestone. However, in order for CSC to be able to position itself as a global leader in GHG and Energy Management, it is imperative that we become a local early leader in this field.

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4.Implementing AB32

AB32 is expected to be implemented via “command and control” enforcement, potentially utilizing a “cap-and-trade” market exchange. This design has been generally accepted by the business community as a good market-based solution, that is expected to create new jobs. The Air Resources Board (ARB) is expected to be at the top of the chain of command, and to issue target compliance dates. It is expected that there will be repercussions for not complying with ARB’s target. However, at this point these repercussions have not been defined.

AB32 compliance targets will be based on technical feasibility, suggesting that engineering re-development and re-designs will play very important roles in meeting the reduction goal, if this was not clear to the reader already.

AB32 is primarily targeted at industry, not residential or commercial properties. In brief, implementation of AB32 typically follows the following steps:

Inventory the company’s GHG emissions in 2008 and in 1990. This skill clearly falls in the realm of the Air Emissions/Air Quality Environmental Consulting Firm.
Survey the company’s production, waste handling, activities, etc. and to identify areas where that company is inefficient in energy use and GHG emissions. Examples might include fugitive landfill gas emissions, refineries burning off the excessive light paraffin fraction that is generated during fractional distillation, use of company vehicles that are fuel-inefficient, and inefficient production process.
As part of this step, it is necessary to consider up-stream and down-stream activities that are inefficient, such as the efficiency of the production and transportation of consumables that are used by the company in its own production processes.
- Key questions to answer during this step are:
  - Who owns this carbon?
  - Who benefits from this carbon-use?
Formulate possible GHG emission and/or energy use reduction plans. These may include process re-design, design and implementation of a fugitive emission-capturing system, substituting a consumable product, altering hours of operation, selection of a different fuel source, etc. This step is most likely to require energy, process and chemical engineering skills. As part of this step, it is important to quantify the expected change in GHG emissions for each change possible.
Company consideration of the different plans presented, as well the options of purchasing offsets from the trade marketplace or exceeding the targeted cap and selling the offset for a profit.
Company selection of a plan, or back to steps 2 and/or 3 for re-formulation.
Implementation of selected plan.
If the plan entails making change to reduce GHG emissions, then it may be necessary to conduct additional measurements to verify the reduction.
As the years progress, it may be necessary to repeat this process to meet new targets, re-assess emissions as the company process or products line change, etc.

(Camp, Dresser &McKee, Inc “ AB32 Implementation & Technological Challenges, 3/13/08)

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4.1 Timeline for Implementation

The timeline for implementation of the bill was originally scheduled as follows (AB32, Nunez Pavlev Bill):

2007: Publish list of early actions
2008: Mandatory reporting and 1990 baseline
2009: Adopt early scooping plan and mandatory regulations
2010: Early action regulation enforceable
2011: Adopt GHG reduction measures
2012: GHG reduction measures enforceable
2020: Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels

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5.CSC’s Role in AB32

Some key services to be provided by consulting firms under AB32 are as follows:

Air Emissions Inventory/Air Quality Compliance Assessments
Process and Chemical Engineering
Energy Engineering
Sustainable Management Consulting
Accounting (to help assess the monetary value of emission reductions greater or lesser than the ARB target)